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Ethan Blogs on BI Archive

Welcome to the World!

Welcome to the World!

Kolby Austin DurdaI take great pleasure in presenting to you the 2031 Nobel Prize winner in Physics, Kolby Austin Durda.  In case you didn’t hear, my nephew was born on Saturday.  That’s right; I’ve already presented his name to the Nobel Committee for his solution of global climate change.  Please phone in or text your votes.

So beyond being the future fixer of the climate, Kolby also did me a great service.  He helped me figure out how to explain a concept for the upcoming 2013 IBIS that I’ve been struggling with.  I’m teaching a class on KPI development and while preparing I was asked by several people to help them understand how I distinguish between KPI’s and metrics…while I gave examples, they never felt very satisfying.

For some, the difference seemed to be a little pedantic, but to me, as we measure so many things that are important, we should be very careful what we label KPI’s.  I’ve seen too many corporate dashboards with a zillion “KPI’s” which are not really KPI’s at all.  Many are important, but “key” is a really big word.

So how did Kolby help?  Well, it was in the announcement.  He was born on Saturday morning at 1:04 a.m. and weighed 8 lbs, 0 oz with a length of exactly 21” and Apgar score of 9.  As you can see, he’s already being measured at birth!

Now here is the dilemma that this little guy helped me with.  You see, the first 3 measurements that I have for him are all important and are both recorded and can drive decisions of the doctors and his parents.  The last number though, that is the only one that is a KPI.

Why not the first ones?  Well, primarily because while important, they drive things like what size pants he wears and when he gets sent home from the hospital, they don’t have sensitivity to small changes and are typically not unique or important by themselves.  For instance, if his weight was 8 pounds 4 ounces would anything have been done differently?  Would knowing that different number change anyone’s outlook or activity with him?  Of course not.

The Apgar score is another matter.  The Apgar score is a 10 point score which was devised in 1952 by Dr. Virginia Apgar and is a very nice and simple measurement of 5 key areas of newborn health.  Specifically the following are measured on a scale of 0 to 2 and then added up to give a single measurement.  Skin color, pulse rate, reflex irritability, muscle tone and breathing are measured at 1 minute and then at 5 minutes of life.  A score of 7-10 is considered normal and a low number in one area is not necessarily an indicator of a problem, but improvements are expected in the second test.

Again, this score provides a nice simple data point that drives decisions, understanding and action by all who hear it.  Telling your doctor that your baby’s Apgar was a 5 will drive her to give the little guy more attention and additional analysis than if the score was a 9.  As it turns out, they normally don’t like 10’s as that might indicate the child isn’t responding to the miracle of birth as they usually do.  So again, the number tells everyone what to expect when they turn the corner and look at the stud muffin.

Sounds like a KPI to me!

This is important as the hospital was delivering multiple babies that morning and while not all are future NFL hall of famers as Kolby is, they are still precious and need the right amount of attention with limited hospital resources.  Besides, the camera crews hate nurses and doctors constantly stepping in and photo bombing him.  The Apgar is a KPI which allows the hospital to focus on the needs of all of the babies based on their presenting scores.  Again, the other numbers are important, but they just can’t all be KPI’s, as that would overwhelm the decision makers who have a lot on their hands already!

Hopefully, those not sure of why I make a big deal out of the difference between KPI’s and metrics will at least see and understand a bit more of the crazy mind of Uncle Ethan.  I look forward to sharing more about how to develop KPIs at IBIS 2013 – Limitless BI conference.  Oh and drop a note below to welcome Kolby in either English or Cantonese, he’ll write back next year when he can read and type.

Pop Quiz

Pop Quiz

Quick! Answer this question: Can you do the work of an accountant?

Now, before I tell you why I ask and why you answered the way you did, humor me and ask yourself a few more questions: What made you think that you could or couldn’t handle that effort? Do you have any facts to back that opinion up? And, how certain are you of your opinion?

Another great question to ask is this: If I presented information to you that showed your opinion to be incorrect, would you question my data or would you question your conclusion?

As it turns out, in my oh so scientific survey, most people see accounting as a necessary evil which is fairly simple at its core and can be done by anyone who just sits down long enough. Now, why would we think that about accounting, but not say, programming? Well, it boils down to the depth of your understanding of accounting!

There is an interesting cognitive bias in play here, it is called the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which basically states that the less you know about something, the more you think you know about it and the stronger your feelings about that item’s unimportance. There is also a correlating theory that outlines the four stages of competence and looks like this:

1. Unconscious incompetence – I don’t know it but think I do, and so, it can’t be hard and therefore it isn’t all that important anyway.

2. Conscious incompetence – I don’t know it but I also realize that it is bigger than I am.

3. Conscious competence – I know it, but it takes work to get it done.

4. Unconscious competence – I know it and I don’t have to think about it.

I put these things out here because I have an interest and a concern about how they play a part in the application of business intelligence.

We use BI to help people make better decisions and that almost always requires overcoming their biases and preconceived notions, and their decision making models. Biases are difficult to overcome especially when someone is at a level “1” (unconscious incompetence) and they are making decisions thinking that they have everything that they need.

In my accounting example, if I don’t know anything about accounting, then it is easy to say, “just enter the invoices into the computer, pay the bills and stop pretending that it is so hard. You don’t need more resources or a new system because the old one worked and not much has changed anyway.” The reason is because in my mental model, unencumbered by any understanding of the complexities and vagaries surrounding it, accounting is just an administrative event that anyone can do. For those of us in the technology field, we can close our eyes and hear many managers say things like, “just put it on my iPad, how hard can it be?

My concern is that while we fight biases all the time, this one is particularly difficult because the successful use of Business Intelligence requires an active consumer of the data in order to be relevant. So to fight recency bias (the bias for more recent data over older data) for instance, we give larger time frames of information so that the consumer can see the trend and gain perspective by noticing that historical data is relevant as well. The bias is addressed because the consumer can’t avoid looking at the whole chart.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is more insidious because people aren’t looking for the data and what they see they discount as either irrelevant, or even incorrect. I’m looking for suggestions here, but here is my basic thought process.

In order to get this bias addressed, we must first create an environment or tool where the decision maker will seek out the data. This can be done in a number of ways but I’m partial to gamification of the data. The basic description of this process is that we have to turn the data access and analysis into a game of sorts. Basically make the use of the tools “fun”. Now this is pretty hard to do with old green bar reports if you read my last article, but today with dashboards and really awesome looking mobile applications you can take a step towards making visualizing and accessing the data fun… not quite golf, but better than a root canal.

A scoring mechanism is difficult of course (all games need a scoreboard after all), but you can add that be providing collaboration opportunities where executives can share their insights and the data that they have found to be of value with others. This gives them a way to show that not only are they engaged, but can also alert others that may need to address (or act upon) what has been discovered.

The second piece of the cognitive bias is to fight the urge to ignore things that we don’t understand or that don’t fit in our mental model. Basically we are trying to get the decision makers into the 2nd stage of competence. To do this we need to make the data simple and easily applied and compared to other things which we already know and believe in. This is obviously way easier to say than to do, but the process is straight forward: start by making your data as simple as possible and then simplify it.

An example might be, if you are trying to show the MPG (miles per gallon) impact of maintenance on your vehicles and your VP of operations isn’t a big maintenance fan, break down the numbers into just preventative maintenance and MPG. This way, the data can be consumed in a way that will drive appreciation of the relationships that you’ve found. Don’t put a chart out there with 100 different types of maintenance as that will drive away the consumer. We like to make really complex dashboards because that’s what we do for a living; just don’t let the desire to make something really cool override the desire to make someone do something really cool.

I would love to hear your thoughts and ideas relating to this.  leave me a comment below.

Is it Karma or Just Bad Data?

Is it Karma or Just Bad Data?

I know that I shouldn’t be amused by these sorts of things, but I can’t help myself. Recently our good friends at HP announced that they are writing off $8.8 billion (yes, B, $8,800,000,000) worth of a company that they bought a year ago as the value of the company was severely overstated and there was, according to HP, “serious accounting improprieties” and “outright misrepresentations”, before they bought Autonomy for over $10 billion in October 2011.

Now my heart breaks for the shareholders of HP and if there was fraud involved I trust that the legal authorities will make it all right…but I suspect that the very large $8.8 sum is very much gone. I have some observations to share and point out for everyone else who is considering financing someone else’s retirement to a tropical island.

First of all, way back in 2011, everyone said that HP was paying way too much for the company. Other large tech companies such as Oracle went out of their way to point out that the price HP was paying was way too high and the products were way too green. The dream of magically printing money using their technology was just too good for HP to walk away from…but it was also just too good to be true.

Secondly, does anyone remember what Autonomy does? They were a BI (Big Data to be more specific) company based in the UK whose claim to fame was that they had mastered some very complex data extraction technologies of unstructured data streams (pictures, Twitter, Blogs, you name it) and then applied some fancy statistics to find bad guys for the government and good customers for businesses.

They had a healthy roster of very good clients that most companies in this sector would die for and they were at the top of a buzz word industry. What could go wrong? Well, I suspect that there are a lot of people asking themselves that very question right now. The part that I find most amusing in a schadenfreudeian way is that one of the advertised use cases of the Autonomy toolset is to stop fraud and unexpected write-offs from happening. How’d that work out for you HP? Sounds like it is time to review the marketing material!

Ultimately the courts and lots of lawyers will try to sort this all out and all of the involved consultancies and auditing firms will write big checks to HP but those of us not on the hook for this should still learn the most important lesson in this mess. If something is too good to be true, it probably is.

Sounds like something my Grandmother would say…wait, she did say that. So, to put it in more relevant terms, no matter how much your models suggest that something is a good deal, don’t assume that it is. Good executives put just as much energy into NOT doing something (i.e. showing that the new investment is a bad idea) as they put into doing it (i.e. showing the shareholders and board how good of an idea it is).

Good executives look not for reasons why projects and acquisitions will succeed, but rather why they might fail and what that post mortem will look like in advance to make sure that they actively address issues before they come up and develop mitigation plans and strategies while they have the ability to change things.

Momentum is a part of the problem in this case as well, it appears that HP tried to get out of the deal late in the game but couldn’t as they had been contractually bound and were unable to find sufficient reasons for exiting without paying big penalties. They obviously needed a better bail-out mechanism to save the company, oh I don’t know, a few billion dollars.

Let’s not pretend that anyone is above making these mistakes, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore them either and pretend that they are a cost of doing business. So for all of you movers and shakers out there, here’s to making sure that we not only source the right data, but also use our good management and decision making strategies with it.

 

Self-Service Business Intelligence: It’s Wrong, Bad and Shouldn’t be Anyone’s Goal

Self-Service Business Intelligence:  It’s Wrong, Bad and Shouldn’t be Anyone’s Goal

Today’s goal is to find out who reads my blog posts.  So here it goes: Self-Service Business Intelligence is an outdated, over-stated and fundamentally flawed concept.  Those using this term should be mocked appropriately.

Ok, now let’s see if I get any comments!

I was going to end the blog there but my better half suggested that I at least explain myself before heading off smugly to my next philosophical rant.  So here it goes.

When I first started working in the corporate world many moons ago, I was in the accounting department of a fortune 500 company doing billing, AR and AP.  I was a data consumer at the lowest level of the proverbial food chain; so I was given piles and piles of reports every day and they were monsters.  These reports were spit out of an old, massive printer on wide sheets of alternating green and white background paper affectionately called (I think it was affectionately anyway) green-bar.

The green-bar reports were written by the IT professionals in the mainframe system and the reports ran every morning regardless of the day’s prior activity and even on holidays.  Monday morning was always fun as we had a huge pile to dig through and we ended up throwing away 50 pounds of blank paper before starting the day.  Ultimately these reports were processed/analyzed and the resulting values typed into Excel (or Lotus, we had both for some reason) and then dutifully filed away as they could not be reproduced.  Errors with the data were identified, corrected in the system and we went on our merry way.  Anyone want to guess why I eventually left accounting?

Anyway, we got a new system that was client server based and we actually had the ability to run our own reports.  These reports were also prompted so that we could just get the data we were looking for based on date, cost center, account number etc.  Life was good!  The term they used for this was…self-service.

Now this term made sense for me.  I had worked at McDonalds for almost 6 years during high school and college and self-service meant that people could go up and get the drink that they wanted from the soda machine and they didn’t require my help to get it.  This made them happy that they didn’t have to wait for me and it made me happy that they didn’t complain about too much ice.

Back to accounting though, we still had one issue that didn’t get any better and that was that changes to the reports still pretty much took an act of Congress. This one little issue, the painfully slow process to get new reports or to make changes to existing reports, caused us to still use Excel just as much as we did before.  The one positive was that fewer trees died with that seed we started to get a vision…a vision of control!  Pretty soon the idea of self-service morphed into one of the business having control over the entire process and being able to write and create their own data extracts… to put into Excel of course.

In reality though, at that point I wouldn’t be getting self-service anymore, instead I would be an IT person working in accounting.  So we have a dilemma now, the IT people see self-service as a chance to get the business out of their hair and just be admin and support people, the business see’s self-service as a model for getting rid of unhelpful IT resources.  Guess what?  Both teams need each other!  Trying to design a system to exclude your business partner is silly.

In the 1990’s, a restaurant chain tried the concept of having their customers grill their own steaks and guess what, it went out of business.  It may have sounded like a good idea, but people want their meals made by a professional who knows what they are doing.  Sometimes getting their own drinks can be nice, but when was the last time your waiter at Ruth’s Chris told you to get your own refills?  What kind of BI shop do you have?  McDonald’s or Ruth’s Chris…what kind are you aiming for?

Certainly technologies and techniques have come a long way over the years and now customers have  access to environments which allow them to truly interrogate and play with the data to get what they want in tools other than Excel… but this doesn’t happen without dedicated, knowledgeable IT professionals working with knowledgeable and dedicated business users.  In the SAP BusinessObjects suite of tools for example, Universes insulate consumers from the complexities and gyrations that must be dealt with to get their data in a reportable format.  But even with a “perfect” Universe, work still must be done in the reports.  There simply is no such thing as a completely self-service environment.

The goal of every IT group should therefore not be to give their customers “self-service”, which is now defined as a model where the IT department just creates the ecosystem and then lets the customer go from there.  That model is sort of like the customer getting fed up with their food cooked incorrectly and then going back into the kitchen to cook it themselves.  “Sure, we’ll provide the stove, but the rest is up to you, so I don’t have to hear complaints”, says the manager.   No, the correct solution is to take the chef to the customer’s table, get everyone in agreement on exactly what they want and then she goes back and cooks it.  Unless you think that either your customer is too dumb to tell the chef what he wants or the chef isn’t smart enough to cook the meal, then you should never hand the customer a sauce pan.  Hand the customer salt and pepper, sure, but be realistic!

Ultimately, the customer wants access to good clean data presented in a way that makes sense and allows for straight-forward manipulation and analysis.  Professional BI developers need to sit down, side by side with the business and determine what is needed and how best to get it…simply trying to pass the buck to the customer doesn’t end up working for anyone.

The bottom line is that I’m not advocating a return to green-bar.  I’m just suggesting that the tools have already created a self-service BI environment and pushing that as a goal will lead to failure for everyone, so just don’t go overboard; the goal now, as it always should have been, is to make our customers happy not to make them IT people.

Comments?

What do you think you know?

What do you think you know?

My wife was preparing to give a presentation to a group on the effects of chronic pain on depression and she made an interesting point to me that I think is worth sharing.  First of all, she knows a lot more about the brain than I will ever know.  Apparently there are more parts of the brain than one big “gray-smooshy” part; so that was a good reminder of high school biology and I learned something!

After getting me back up to speed on the brain parts she made a point that struck me as very interesting and a bit counter-intuitive.  I had always been told that depression, while it can be caused by many different things, has a single physiological description which is that it is at its core a chemical balance problem.  Basically the monoamine theory (big word, I hope you are impressed!) states that depression is primarily an issue of a chemical imbalance in the brain.

The common anti-depressants in use today; Prozac, Effexor, Wellbutrin, Adderall, etc. all work by manipulating the various chemical concentrations or our brains ability to absorb/connect to them.  This theory first developed the early 1950’s and the resulting pharmaceuticals have been the standard of treatment since then.

There has always been a nagging problem with this theory though.  When a patient takes the medication the brain gets washed with these chemicals almost instantly…so why does it take a minimum of 2 weeks and up to as many as 6 or 8 weeks for a depressed patient to feel better after being treated?

The theory that explains this is basically that the brain has adjusted to the low levels of good chemicals in the past and that the brain needs a proverbial wall broken down before it can be appropriately sensitive them.

As I’m sure you are beginning to guess, there is a new idea which better explains all of this and is causing some second thoughts in the medical world.  First let’s start by describing where this monoamine theory first came from.  In a phrase…they backed into it.  A drug called Reserpine, which was used to treat high blood pressure, also caused depression.  They determined that it shut down the brain’s ability to absorb the good chemicals so it only made sense that these chemicals and the wiring in the brain was the problem.  Around the same time, another drug, Iproniazid was found to cause “euphoria” in patients; this drug takes the brake off of our brains ability to absorb the happy chemicals.  So with these data points, they did some correlating studies and suddenly they have a model which solves depression!

Like many problems in our businesses they found a data point and associated it with a known and like magic a massive industry is created!  Last year in the US we spent over $12 billion dollars on these pharmaceutical solutions to a very real problem affecting 9.5% of all US adults.  For the record, I have no problem with these drugs and the massive and demonstrative decrease in suicides and increase in productivity more than justify the importance that the drug companies have been putting into these medications.  I just disagree with how they got there…and the more than $1 billion spent on advertising last year for one drug alone.

The real problem that I’m bringing up is that new research is showing that the drugs don’t do what we think that they do, or at least not directly.  Certainly they increase the good chemicals in our brains…but it doesn’t appear to make the patient less depressed.  Scientists are proving that the real physiological description of depression is not one of a chemical imbalance but rather that unhealthy nerve-cell connections are being found in the regions of the brain that create our emotions.  Guess what, these antidepressants have an effect here, a side-effect is that they stimulate growth of new nerve cells in this area of the brain after a few weeks of taking the medication.

So to recap, we have a tried and true solution for depression which is based on years of study and research and it is a side-effect.  Yep, we’ve been throwing billion dollars at a “close enough” solution.  Not that it is all bad, but it was still a misguided effort because doctors were tied into believing a correlation and assumption that simply wasn’t what they thought it was and they could have been looking for something with fewer side effects and a more direct positive influence.

So let me bring this back to business intelligence for a second.  The reason for this blog is that I’m seeing more and more cases of people using power BI tools to simply confirm relationships that they already know…or think that they know and understand.  They want the new system to just say the same information…in a different way.  They aren’t looking to challenge any assumptions or currently held beliefs.  One of the huge powers of BI is the ability to find unknown relationships or contrary indicators and yet we don’t use the tools to find them for a myriad of reasons that seem good at the time.

Here is a check list of sorts to see if you are just using your BI investment to tell you what you already know:

  • Does your BI landscape tell us something that we are surprised about more than once a month?
  • Do the change agents (you know, the people no one likes) in your organization seek out your data and access to your tools?
  • Do you change business rules and formulas until the data “looks right”?
  • Do you have reports and dashboards which are designed to disagree with your organization’s business plan?  i.e. shows that the marketing increases don’t increase sales for instance.
  • Do you have someone assigned (and evaluated on their performance) to be a devil’s advocate?

In the end, I think the real question everyone should be asking is that if your entire BI solution has been defined and built to satisfy your current vision, perspective and plans…then not only are you not taking advantage of the investment that you’ve already made in your BI space, but you also have no chance of finding the next paradigm shifting idea and discover that maybe you were off-base all along!

Now this challenge I’m offering isn’t for the faint of heart, think for a second about the doctors who are researching this alternative theory of the biology of depression.  How many friends do you think that they are making?  They are researching to show that this massive industry is off-base and that the billions being spent on these drugs are misdirected.  They are researching to show that everything that we’ve ever known about depression and everything that they were taught since high school health classes is off, that every doctor and scientist working on it was misled by a fundamental bias which they should have been prepared for.  The question is of course, is it worth it?

Tree Trimming

Tree Trimming

For those of you not fortunate enough to live in the beautiful desert southwest you might not have had the honor of knowing of the tree that is the bane of my existence.  It is the Palo Verde.  I believe that it is Spanish for “Cursed Tree From the 7th Level of Hell” that or green stick…one of the two.  Yes, it is actually the official state tree of Arizona for some strange reason.

Anyway, this particular tree has some very specific adaptations to allow it to thrive in the desert.  First, it requires very little water and actually thrives in extreme temperatures.  As a matter of fact the one in my yard, or El Diablo as I like to call it, doesn’t seem to die no matter how often I “forget” to water it.  In addition to being very resilient to the heat and drought it also has thorns which grow approximately 25 feet long and are needle sharp to ward off predators or bad gardeners. The speed at which it grows is nothing short of amazing and the long thin limbs it grows have such a springy strength to them that they often slap back and will hit you in the face while trying to cut them.  Don’t worry though, the wood does dry out when cut from the tree and is no longer springy…in fact, when it dries out it, it becomes as hard as steel and can easily puncture a shoe or a car tire.  You can see this small branch that I didn’t pick up the last time I trimmed the tree and can imagine how painful it is to step on.

You might wonder why I have this particular tree in front of my house.  I wonder the same thing.  The tree was planted by the builders who did so as it also grows very quickly and looks green from a distance year round.  Needless to say they like these trees so much that no neighborhood in Arizona built within in the last 10 years is missing this particular delightful vegetation.

This brings me to my bi-summer blood ritual in which I have to prune El Diablo back so he stops clawing at the kids as they ride their bikes past the tree on the sidewalk.  I know that I should clean it up more often than I do and I’m sure that it would make the experience more pleasant if I did but what can I say, it isn’t my favorite bit of outside work.  In fact, the occurrence I’m talking about today actually took place in late July but I have been too injured and traumatized to write about it.

This past clearing was particularly painful and it was only partially my fault.  We were having friends over and I continued to put off the trimming until it was just a few days before they were going to be here and I had to trim it.  So I went outside after the sun went down (it was July remember) and before I went out I checked the temperature…114.  Yes, sun down, 60% humidity, 114 degrees.  Me and El Diablo.

You might be wondering what the final score was but you’ll just have to take my word for it, I was too embarrassed to take a picture, but it was better than I found it.  El Diablo was cut down until the kids could walk down the sidewalk without being attacked but I did run out of space in the garbage for branches.  He probably won the war though as I was full of holes in my hands and arms, one in the bottom of my right foot; in addition to the two broken-off pieces of the thorns which took a week to work their way out of my hands.  I only had one major scratch on my face which was an improvement from the spring trimming.

I won…I think.  Don’t worry; I’m going to trim it up before it gets so out of hand next time.  I promise.

So in case you were wondering why I am going on about El Diablo it is simple.  I was trimming it up and taking these stabs to my hands and arms and thinking about how much I’d rather be working.  As I was contemplating my current projects I was forced to recognize that I was not taking my own good advice.

Any time I go into a customer project I remind everyone involved that they should plan for maintenance on what they are building.  It is so hard to pull off though.  It isn’t just me of course.  We are all bad at planning beyond the current emergency.  It is so easy to focus on the immediate needs and just put in “temporary solutions” knowing that they will be cleaned up later.  Of course the problem is that the temporary solutions become permanent and they end up causing more work, more blood, more pain than if we had just built into our plan a little time at the end of the project to do clean up and maintenance.

In teaching BI for Executives, I always give the advice to put aside a few weeks every year to perform cleaning and maintenance in the systems you own.  I think it is good advice, but it is difficult to make happen.  For instance, how many reports do you have in your environment that aren’t being used?  Universes?  How about tables and ETL?

If the plan is just to wait until a project comes along which will replace these tables/ETL/reports/universes how much additional work are you going to create as the people who originally wrote these and know how (or even if) they are being used are long gone or certainly the memories are.  The normal prescription for these problems is to document everything and that will leave you with a map of how to deal with the eventual maintenance.  The problem with this is that the documentation is out of date before it is finished and just like my tree, knowing exactly which branch you should cut and where is a lot easier to know when you go after it on a regular basis and not at night when you have guests coming over the next night and the garbage truck coming to get your trimmings in 10 hours.

My experience has been typically that project teams end up even making the problem worse when confronting these issues because rather than doing something with the old universe/tables/reports/ETL they just build everything from scratch because of the unknown impact of touching the old stuff and there is never enough budget or time to deal with it.  Even with technology upgrades the default behavior is to import everything and figure it out later.  So now instead of one bad situation, we have two.  Don’t worry…we’ll get to the old stuff…in the next project.

My suggestion is the same I have for myself and El Diablo.  We all have schedules and it is incumbent upon us to put our highest priorities on there to make sure that they get done.  We must schedule, plan and prioritize maintenance outside of projects to clean things up.  That requires some sales to management and some hard decisions but this still must be done regardless of your company size or situation.  Don’t we make time to brush our teeth in the morning no matter how tight our schedules are?  If we put this maintenance off we might save a few minutes in the morning but we’ll pay for it in hours, dollars and pain in the dentist’s chair.

There are tools which can help but even those require a person to run the usage statistics and make phone calls and find out if what you are looking at is really not needed or just not needed often.  Call up your local friendly consultant if you need some advice on how to do this in your particular environment or at least sit down and figure out what maintenance is needed and can be scheduled on a regular basis in your organization.  If not for the sake of your developers do it for benefit of your poor customers who really aren’t sure why there are 10 shipping reports by region either.

Volleyball and Math

Volleyball and Math

Last night as my wife and I watched the Olympics we were treated to the 4th set of a best of 5 men’s volleyball series between Brazil and the United States. While the game was good (US won by the way), I was particularly struck by a series of events that happened while the US went on a 7 point run. Now 7 point runs are rare at this level of competition especially against the gold medal favorites (Brazil came into the Olympics as the number one ranked men’s team and the US 5th).

What makes those runs so hard is that the games are pretty close, the competitors fairly evenly matched and most importantly, there aren’t that many points to be scored at all! If you look at the final scores and do a simple average of the four sets you will see that the US scored 100 points and Brazil 86 leaving us with a chance of 53.76% chance of the US scoring on any given serve. Each set ends at 25 points and with a little statistical magic we see that the chance of the US having a 7 point run is a little higher than 4.6%. Note that the chance of an 8 point run is a touch about 2.2%. See a pattern yet?

So that is all interesting I suppose, but why am I doing this little math exercise? Well, because of what the coach did during a timeout. He pulled his team in and yelled at them; not a big surprise I suppose at this level of competition and stress levels, but I’m interested in what he thought he got out of it. You see he probably felt pretty good about his negative feedback after they broke the American’s streak…the problem of course is that they were likely to break the streak no matter what. The chance of a 9 point run drops all the way to 1%.

So they were pretty much going to score no matter what during this run as the odds of them finishing up the 25 points starting at 10 with no points by Brazil were very low .02% as a matter of fact. (For you math geeks I used an estimation process for the calculations and you can e-mail me for details or corrections.)

This effect is called regression to the mean. Basically when you do really well at something you are likely to be closer to average the next time you do it. This is an important concept in business as we tend to do things expecting a certain outcome and then repeat it over and over again expecting the change to be permanent. This can be true…but not always!

This occurs both for rewards and punishments so when you make decisions about how to manage your business watch carefully for this effect. This isn’t meant to make you give up on controlling your business; in fact it is the exact opposite of that. I’m not suggesting for one second that we can’t influence future outcomes, just that we need to be watching the average, not the event. If the volleyball coach thought that his yelling changed the next point he missed the boat. That would mean that the team works best with stress and fear…so he should just keep that behavior up over the long run and see how things turn out!

The message for us is to take a long term vision and carefully track our behavior and the resulting effects and how the averages/maximums/minimums change. Hey wait a minute, that sounds like business intelligence! I knew I had a point in here someplace.

March Madness

March Madness

It’s that wonderful time of the year again for a great huge decrease in productivity across your company. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. the US economy suffers a loss of $1.8 billion (yes, that’s $1,800,000,000.00) during this season due to employee distraction, poor time management and general distraction. Not sure if you are being affected? Check cube walls for brackets and web logs to see how many people are engaging in this annual exercise in college pageantry and sport.

For those of you unfamiliar with this American rite of spring, every March there is a series of college basketball tournaments for larger colleges which form a group called the NCAA that starts with 68 teams from across the country and game after game eliminates teams until we get to a final game which will determine the best college basketball team in the country. There are actually two tournaments running, one for women and the other for men. If you don’t think this isn’t a big deal, consider that when Prime Minister Cameron from the UK came to visit this March President Obama took him first to a NCAA basketball game! Not only is it a big deal for the players and the national interest, but few offices are devoid of an office pool betting on the eventual winner with prizes that can run into the thousands. Even an 11 year-old student in Nebraska was caught running a betting pool for the tournament this year with a $5 entry fee for each student interested.

While it might be a huge loss for the economy with the distractions and hard feelings of losing fans, it is a wonderful example of how we can work better in our organizations. How might you ask? Well, the first hint is that this is a BI blog. BI is all about getting people to see, understand and most importantly act on data.

The last part is sometimes the most difficult piece but is often addressed with simple, but effective, social engineering and psychology. To give an example let me tell you a story of a plant that I used to work at.

One of the processes involved separating thin sheets of metal by slightly bending the whole thing and then sliding a set of metal bars between the cracks caused by the bending and separating them. Care had to be taken not to bend the sheets too much or to crush the corners of the thin sheet of metal resulting in scrap which had to be melted down and processed at a loss.

We had several teams who had to do this physically demanding, dangerous and boring work. This was no one’s favorite task and the scrap rates and injuries of cut fingers were atrocious. It would be easy to simply blame the process and say that high scrap rates were inevitable in such a manual and sensitive process. After all, a million different variables could affect the outcome, why not just leave the process alone and worry about other things? Besides, the employees would just say that they needed automated equipment which the plant couldn’t afford and we’d be right back where we started at. Injuries were their fault for not paying attention so everyone should just move on.

Fortunately, along came a very smart manager who saw this not a problem of process or equipment, but rather a problem of people. The manager put together a scrap rate calculation for each team that was working this process. When the manager looked at the data he saw that some teams were just flat out better than others in both safety and productivity. His solution, not to cross train, not to reassign resources, it was to put a copy of his analysis on the wall.

That’s right, he simply published his work. Instantly, the worst performing team at the plant improved by reducing their scrap rate by almost 40%. The best team actually improved even more and although they couldn’t consistently hit 100% good quality, they were very close and went days without a reject. Injury rates dropped to zero with no reportable injuries for years. How exactly did this happen? Could it be repeated?

The answer to those questions is simple and clear. People respond to the motivation of competition. We are hard-wired from our caveman days to compete for resources and to be the best at what we do. No one wants to be on the team that gets blown away in the quality and safety scoring. Being the loser is no fun, but it was something that could be affected, and so they did!

As BI consultants we often refer to this phenomenon of self-correction with phrases like, “Measurement alone changes outcome.” This is one of the biggest values of BI as it helps focus people on what needs to be changed in their organizations. Of course the downside of this natural measurement effect is that sometimes watching a particular value or metric creates problems with perverse incentivisation which is a separate blog…or five.

Now to the question of repeatability; recently we put a dashboard in place at an Aluminum refinery in Europe and found a similar situation where one shift was significantly underperforming compared to its peers. The result from publishing the data was that the shift supervisors got together with their compatriots in the other shifts and asked some hard questions about what they could do differently to change their scores. This process took place outside of a top-down driven project and reduced the “bad” shifts scrap rates from the mid-20% range of quality to the low 10% range. Competition is a very powerful motivator and can almost never be over-estimated in its impact.

So how can you do this at your companies? Well, one, embrace it. No one wants their employees slashing each other’s tires in the parking lot, but that doesn’t mean you can’t engender a sense of positive rivalry and competition in your organization. The trick is to put together KPI’s and metrics which follow a simple pattern below and then publish the KPI’s with rewards and celebration for winners. Competitions should be regular (monthly or quarterly is the longest) and the rules should allow new teams to get the top spot on a regular basis. Rewards need not be significant, but $50 worth of pizza for lunch on the company with the plant manager in attendance for the winners is surprisingly effective. It tells them that not only did they do well; but that even the top dog is there to celebrate and congratulate them…who doesn’t want their boss to be proud of them?

The trick now is to make sure that you have a fair and even playing field. One of the great things about the NCAA basketball tournament mentioned earlier is that even though some schools present teams which are considered unbeatable every year there are multiple Cinderella stories of small schools, unknown coaches and undersized teams going way further than anyone expected of them. In fact 8 different winning teams have taken home the trophy since 2000.

Here are some tactics when building competitions in your organizations. While this isn’t a complete list, make sure you think through these items:

• Ensure an even playing field. All teams should have both a realistic chance of winning if they work hard, but also that one team doesn’t have a significant advantage that will turn off the other “players”. Nothing is worse than feeling that the game is stacked against you. Teams can be teams of one of course, but if one team has one person and the others are staffed with 10 people, one side or the other will not be happy!

• Clear goals, rules and referees – transparency over complexity. It is imperative that the players know the rules, the refs, and the way the points are tallied. How can people improve their score if they don’t know its calculation? This can be very difficult to do as sometimes the scores are difficult to calculate without serious math that can be manipulated by the players if they know the exact formula but it can be done. Sometimes you have to get simple!

• Play fair. This sounds obvious but one company I was at found out that the players had some assistance from the stands. Other employees outside of the measured group were changing data in the system to reward their friends. The result was that the offending 6 employees (including 2 supervisors) were fired and the rules of the game were understood to really matter. This wasn’t an overreaction; people were getting bonuses based on their performance. Stealing from the company is no laughing matter!

• Make games that positively affect the final score. Most of us work for companies which are pursuing a profit. Senior management is only going to be interested in games which help the bottom line and can be identified as being positive for the company and not just an exercise in team building or an expensive morale booster. Make it clear how your game affects net income and remind everyone why this game matters to the bottom line.

• Consistency and endurance. The NCAA tournament wasn’t a success overnight and games should be constructed for the long run. If you are going to do this; do it as you promised. Having one team’s bad numbers published one month and their improvement never posted is a real morale killer.

• Review and Report. One of the biggest problems with people putting together games is the lack of review. The results of a game should be very public, not just who won and loss, but also the impact on the company. If people know that it wasn’t just an exercise they will respect the management vision and also the next game that comes along. It may happen that one game will lose its value over time or become redundant, but when everyone knows what is going on there will be understanding, even if hesitant, over the required changes.

• Avoid complex and overly-long games. The temptation might be to measure and reward every single activity but that is neither advisable nor particularly valuable. People can only respond to so many motivators before they become overwhelmed and lose their desire to compete. Think of the NCAA teams. If they had to play a game of basketball, soccer, football, chess, badminton and cricket against each other to determine the winner would you watch? While there certainly would be some brave souls who would compete, would it have the same level of competition and energy? Games should have a laser focus on a particular trouble spot that has a reward for everyone.

I hope that I’ve put some ideas in your head that will get you thinking about what you can do with your KPI’s to truly change your business. Putting them on the wall and buying lunch can make a surprising difference and just because this is a simple solution doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be a part of your vision to utilize the data in your organization. Too many times we make KPI’s and don’t put them in the hands of the people who can truly affect them. KPI’s aren’t just for the CEO you know!

What have you seen work in your organizations? I can’t be the only one who has used this technique…am I?

Photo Credit: © Justin Smith / Wikimedia Commons, CC-By-SA-3.0

Explaining BI to non-BI folks

Explaining BI to non-BI folks

I’m preparing for an upcoming business trip that I’d like to share with everyone. I will be at The Minerals, Metals and Materials (TMS2012) conference in beautiful Orlando, FL next week. The conference topics are exciting for me personally as well as professionally. My first job out of college (where I spent 10 years of my career) was with a metals refinery and extrusion plant that is a part of a major copper mining company based in the US. This is not just where I cut my teeth in business and IT but also where I was able to develop an understanding of the complexities and difficulties of running a business. These skills served me well, and in the ensuing years while I’ve been an employee at InfoSol I’ve had multiple opportunities to work in manufacturing and mining across the globe.

Even though this space is very familiar to me, I have been worried about how I can best deliver a short, easily consumed pitch to tell people at the conference what Business Intelligence is and how it can help their businesses. Those of us who have been in BI or IT for years might think the question a little blasé, but many of the people at this conference will be scientists, engineers and technicians who view IT as either a maintenance function or even worse as part of the problem keeping things from getting done. They all understand statistics and the art of analytical research so they know part of the BI world, but what about the rest of it? What can I tell them when they ask what I do for a living? I do a whole lot more than pour over data sets and try to extract meaning, much more than put together pretty reports. How can I explain all of this to people who don’t care about the tools that sometimes define my field?

When you do the typical Wikipedia search on Business Intelligence you see a few general definitions but they are quite frankly contradictory. One of the biggest problems is with the limiting word “Business” which tends to bring to mind the ideas and concerns of accounting, purchasing and other “Business” areas.

This is obviously an incomplete definition and I prefer the description from Forrester research group: “Business Intelligence is a set of methodologies, processes, architectures, and technologies that transform raw data into meaningful and useful information used to enable more effective strategic, tactical, and operational insights and decision-making.”

I like this definition better for a number of reasons. One, it more accurately describes what I do every day, and it also helps us describe a very complex world where we have a lot of heterogeneous data streams which need to be synthesized, cleaned and ultimately presented in a way and time that will help people make good decisions.

I think I’ll have to focus on 3 major misconceptions and biases which will keep people from seeing what we have to offer.

The first misconception that I will surely run into is that people will describe us as, “those people who write reports”. While report development is an important part of what we do it is ultimately a small, albeit visible, part of the proverbial puzzle.

Dashboards and reports are the icing on the cake of our entire processes. The final part, but still the icing! And, it often outshines the complex foundation that is in place to allow this final presentation layer to be useful. Our real focus is on decision support and all of the work that is required to allow for good decisions to be made with data is our domain. Our tools support technical activities which allow for data movement/management, cleansing, aggregation, consolidation, presentation and let’s not forget distribution! The youngest and greenest person at the conference will surely know that having a great plan and great science is only valuable if the final output is something that can be understood, consumed and ultimately implemented by the users and operators.

I remember vividly in an earlier part of my career desperately trying to build a project justification for C level management to show the value of implementing a laboratory information management system. We were presenting the cost justification based on the errors on the margin which would affect business decisions. Back then I was simply focused on the data acquisition and management which the LIMS system would provide. The part I was missing was the next step which went to the real crux of the problem, how do we get operators and geologists to implement decisions based on our chemical analysis? How can we get them to trust the output of our processes and system? Ultimately this is the problem that BI solves. While we put a very expensive solution in place to manage our chemistry data, the project was incomplete. We still had to go back and implement the consolidation of that data with other geological and operational data to get a complete picture which could be integrated with the mine plan and actually executed. This is BI, the whole chain of data regardless of the source application all the way to someone deciding whether a particular scoop or rock is waste or should be processed.

The second misconception is that it’s all about the tool. We often talk in terms of the technical tools in BI but really that is even more short-sighted, even if it simplifies the conversation. Unfortunately this bias tends to affect the BI practitioner as much as the consumer. For instance, one of most popular tools is SAP Dashboard Design more commonly known as Xcelsius. This is an amazing visualization tool but if we peel back the flash (little inside joke there, ask me about it at the conference!) and look at the reason behind changing data tables into charts and dynamic analysis we realize that this is a tool that allows us to change people’s understanding and perspective of their own data and their own business. Indeed it allows people to quickly go through tons of data to see trends, correlating data and ultimately make better decisions. It’s not just about the tool, but also the opportunity the tool provides to inspire action.

Take for example a manufacturing environment using Xcelsius along with some distribution technology that we have (yes, read distribution technology as a ‘shameless plug’ for InfoSol’s InfoBurst® platform) to help plant supervisors manage their daily operations. The key point to me is that the users simply didn’t have access to the data in a consumable way to make decisions. The incredible investment in technology and engineering that this plant represented was being hamstrung by the very complexity that made it great. A good BI solution changed that, and helped the people running the plant wrap their arms around everything that was going on.

The final misconception is that BI is just a fancy word for analytics. While it is true that analytics is an important component of the BI landscape, it is not the pinnacle of the field; we must remember that the various pieces of the BI landscape work together to help people make better decisions. I like the example of the humble control chart. Everyone knows that control charts help us quickly understand how various processes are working against controls and statistical analysis. Unfortunately just having a control chart doesn’t do you very much good unless it is in the hands of the right person, at the right time with the relevant data to help the user understand if this variation is a true issue or just a flier. The drill-down capability and ad hoc analysis of data that the BI tools can provide compliments and extends the raw analytical power that our statistical vision focuses on.

I don’t know if I’ve put together a clear vision of BI, but at least I hope that I’ve put together a plan to address some of the ideas which will help us present the perspective that every project involving data (i.e. all of them) needs BI. Not just as an afterthought or as an aside, but rather as a key component to the successful implementation of every effort. We need to help those engineers worried about the technical hydrometallurgy and the impact of process changes in their plants to also take a second and think: What can I do to help present this data to management and operators to help them follow my vision and plans and then to validate the end results?